Why Indian rupee is behaving in a manner so fickle……?????

The above question has bugged the economists from all over the world from last few months that why the Indian rupee is behaving in so much volatile manner that it’s next to impossible to predict, which pit of low price it will hit the next moment?

I was browsing yesterday’s (Friday) newspaper and I was shocked to see that the rupee had hit the mark of 52.20 against the US dollar, a three month low price.

It’s a cruel fact that the currency has been weighed down by a host of worries and most of them are not likely to fade away in recent future. So let’s be prepared to see the rupee hitting new lower levels. There are so many reasons which are responsible for the current position of rupee, few most important of them has been discussed in this post.

One of the biggest reasons which is causing rupee to depreciate, is our trade gap (the difference between imports and exports). The govt. is trying to fill this gap by remitting foreign exchange and other payments.  The current account deficit or CAD is about to hit the figure of 4% according to the new estimates. It clearly indicates that the demand for foreign currency will be much higher than what will be earned, which will further cause rupee to pound.

Secondly, the global crude oil prices are still going north and crude oil imports accounts for the largest expense in India’s import bill. India imports 80% of its annual oil requirements but sadly nothing much can be done about it.so it’s not very difficult to infer that the demand of greenbacks will be high by the state run oil companies. But as global economy is also facing a downturn (due to European crisis), everyone is trying to find a safe haven by buying dollars which is causing a shortage of dollar in forex market. This will also cause relentless pressure on rupee. There is not much scope of export earnings in this field, so no scope for relief too.

The concern of inflation has again come on forefront by the RBI’s move of 50 basis points decrease in its policy rate, repo rate. The figures of Wholesale price Index also clearly shows that the inflation will hover around 7% in 2011-13 and the economic growth is also not expected to rise much above 7%. So the possibility is very high that foreign investors might move their money out of the country in search of an emerging market star. If foreign currency will move out of the country, the value of rupee is bound to fall.

Finally, the govt. seems helpless to lift the economy from the current situation. I literally jumped out of my bed when I read the comment of our outgoing chief economic advisor Mr Kaushik Basu that it’s very unlikely that major economic reforms will happen before next parliamentary elections. If this appalling prediction comes true, it’s almost sure that the country will be facing a severe refractory inflation, moderate to low economic growth and very high CAD in the coming financial year.

To conclude I can say that the economy is heading towards the stage of stagflation and nothing is being done to stop it reaching there.

And the Sun shined again....

When I walked through hell, it was all dark,

The hope was bleak and the faith was stark,

Then with the gleaming light, the sun shined again,

And life again seemed like full of spark.

When I passed through the memory lane,

There was nothing else but inexorable pain,

Then with the glistening light, the sun shined again,

And I became virile for the goals which I have to attain.

When I strolled around the haunted pathway,

I felt like obscured and giving everything away,

Then with a radiant light, the sun shined again,

And I thought its height of my nay-say.

When I rambled from one thought to another,

I became bewildered and started to blather,

Then with a refulgent light, the sun shined again,

This sun was no one else but my mother.

In the world where everything is possible....

Imagination of a human being can go leaps and bounds. I also imagine sometimes that what if everyone gets what he wants without any fight or effort. What if we can achieve whatever we have aspired for, without any obstacles and roadblocks in our way? What if nothing can be termed as "Herculean Task"? In this new world no one has to set priorities as there is nothing to fight for. There is nothing to feel passionate about to do. There is nothing to put special efforts into to see the zenith. Everything is possible. Everything.

Then I think more deeply and feel that it’s the efforts which define the worth of our achievements and success. Pinnacle won’t be the same joyous if there are no bumpy rides to make, no bragging mountains in the way to challenge and no smiles to cherish while crossing the smallest of the hiccups. 

These bumpy rides and mountains are the obstacles against which we fight. The person who puts the best and honest efforts always gets what he wants. This set-up is necessary to maintain the balance of our civilized society. Else there will be an unimaginable havoc. In our world also everything is possible, but one has to work hard and put his 100% to get what he wants. This myth can be made possible by burning oil of the nights, and keeping the faith in one’s ability.

So I happily conclude every time that if you don’t love the hindrances and are afraid to fight, you don’t love your destination.

The dilemma of following the path religiously or concentrating on the end.

Sometimes i find myself in a situation in which i have two options in front of me. One in which I should concentrate on the path which I am following to fulfill my desires or to just concentrate on the destination without even caring about the path. i become a mess that time. Then with a lot of introspection, i find that its the path that matters the most. Without enjoying the journey, one cant savor the joy of reaching his or her destinations. Following one's dreams is the best thing in this world, but one should not be in so much love with them that he forgets to follow the right path to fulfill them.
Life is also a journey with a universal destination named "death". But none of us stops living out of fear of death.  Then why cant we apply the same analogy to everything we do in life. Enjoying the journey  brings happiness in one's life while focusing on the end brings only desperation, restlessness and pain. Rephrasing my point, one should live in the present always without caring much about what happened and what will happen.
We seem to be going through a period of nostalgia, and everyone seems to think yesterday was better than today.  I don't think it was, and I would advise you not to wait ten years before admitting today was great.  If you're hung up on nostalgia, pretend today is yesterday and just go out and have one hell of a time.